The election is over, but the fate of Proposition 50 – Governor’ Newsom’s measure to redraw California’s Congressional districts in favor of Democrats – is officially ‘unknown” Unofficially, however, it’s a different story.
On the election results, it’s tough to say whether the measure’s supporters truly convinced voters Prop 50 was a check against President Trump, or if the opponents’ failure to mount a campaign simply made it a cake walk. Either way, Prop 50 passed 65% to 35%.
California Republicans instantly sued to stop Prop 50, arguing it was unconstitutional. Simultaneously, Democrats in Texas were suing over that state’s effort to redraw its districts in favor of Republicans.
The Texas lawsuit got to the U.S. Supreme Court first, and on December 4 the court ruled in favor of the Republicans. They’d argued the maps were created for purely political and partisan reasons, and the court’s majority approved it.
That decision dooms the lawsuit against Prop 50. Newsom made no secret that his maps were created for political and partisan reasons. So, while Prop 50 may be in limbo for the moment, the smart money says it’s a done deal and everyone should just move forward.
That’s certainly what the Congressional candidates are doing, and here’s what that means for Folsom.
Folsom rests in Congressional District 3, (CD-3) served by Rep. Kevin Kiley. We’ll continue to be part of C-D3; however, the district will now include several thousand (mostly democratic) voters from elsewhere in Sacramento County and flip the district from red to blue. Before Prop 50, voter registration in the “old” CD-3 was 37.8 % Republican, 33.3% Democrat and 28.9% “all others.” Now in the new CD-3 the numbers have switched to 31.6% Republican, 38.7% Democrat and 29.7% all others.
Rep. Kiley has the option to run again here, where he’ll be challenged by Congressman Ami Bera. Two other democrats, Heidi Hall and Chris Bennet have also declared their candidacy for CD-3, but they’ll have to survive a primary election against Rep. Bera in June if they want a shot at the seat.
Rep. Kiley could also look to run in one of the five other new districts his current one was carved into – including running against fellow Republican Tom McClintock in the CD-5 primary.
For now Rep. Kiley is weighing his options. Whoever the Republican candidate is in CD-3, however, they’ll have an uphill climb. A great candidate and a brilliant campaign could win the day, but if voter registration numbers truly predict elections, as history would suggest, then Folsom will likely have a Democratic representative in Congress come 2027.
Or maybe not. The odds of Proposition 50 being tossed out by a court are slim, but not impossible. If not, we’re going to see a nationwide “cold” civil war” over gerrymandering in every state of the union.
What’s really needed is common sense legislation or a court decision that stops the gerrymandering everywhere, once and for all. Otherwise, the only real losers in our next elections will be everyone who believes in representative government.
Bill Romanelli is a public affairs consultant and owner/founder of Archer Public Affairs California LLC in Folsom.
